One of the main problems with China’s economy is that it is geared too heavily to exports and infrastructure spending, too little to domestic consumption. You can see the contrast with the U.S. in the chart. American consumers are in the driver’s seat in the U.S. Household consumption in 2014 [continue reading . . . ]
Two decades ago China’s economy was roughly a quarter the size of the U.S. economy. Today the economies are of roughly equal size, each producing about $17.5 trillion worth of goods and services based on an economic concept known as purchasing power parity (PPP). The concept discounts the effects of [continue reading . . . ]
If you haven’t read it, get to your library (or use your library card) to read Ruchir Sharma’s op-ed in the Wall Street Journal August 17 (Page A 11). He argues that with advanced economies stuck in slow-growth mode, the globe is “one shock away from recession” and that the [continue reading . . . ]
Is China done? Is the 66-year-old dictatorship of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) about to end? “Predicting the demise of authoritarian regimes is a risky business,” writes old China hand Dr. David Shambaugh in a not-to-be-missed essay (subscription required, or use your library card) in the Wall Street Journal March [continue reading . . . ]
Overview bullet points ahead of my economic-update presentations last week to the Northwest Wall & Ceiling Bureau (slides here), a trade association, and the Economic Development Association of Skagit County (slides), perhaps Washington’s most successful economic development association: Listen to the music of the global bond markets. The tune they [continue reading . . . ]
Worried about China’s property bubble collapsing and cratering the global economy? Relax. “China’s boom is over; but Beijing will avoid a bust.” Or so reads a headline on the back page of the May 13, 2014, issue of my favorite newspaper, the Financial Times. The column by Jay Pelosky of [continue reading . . . ]
After rising about 11% from the beginning of 2010 through the early months of this year (top chart), China’s currency has suddenly gone into reverse. Buying one yuan, the basic unit of renminbi, would have set you back 16.32 cents around March 10. As of April 25, the same could [continue reading . . . ]
Beginning in May 2010 and continuing for almost three years, aerospace employers in Washington State added to their payrolls at the rate of nearly 600 a month. Over eight months starting in April 2011, the pace of hiring was almost frantic, averaging about 900 a month, as Boeing scrambled to [continue reading . . . ]
The ports of Seattle and Tacoma are both spending heavily gearing up for shipping-container volumes vastly beyond anything they’ve handled to date. They both may be chasing pipe dreams that will prove costly to their taxpayers. Data from the Pacific Maritime Association shows that container “handle” at Tacoma peaked eight [continue reading . . . ]
I was a newspaperman before I became, in order, a newsletter editor-publisher, then a self-trained economist and professional speaker. I still love newspapers. And not just the on-line versions. I still savor dead trees. Four newspapers thud on to my front porch on weekdays, five on Saturdays, two on Sundays. [continue reading . . . ]
Things on my mind as I prepare for the business/economy segment on KUOW‘s Weekday program at about 10:40 a.m. Pacific time May 29: 1. The Boeing Boom? So over. The headlines over the past several weeks about layoffs and other cutbacks at Boeing (excellent coverage in the Seattle Times by [continue reading . . . ]
Do Malthusian nightmares about the population explosion keep you up nights? Relax. Chill. We Americans (numbering 315 million) are having too few babies. Middle-class fertility has fallen to about 1.6, far below the replacement rate of 2.1. That means fewer workers to support your Social Security benefits. And the problem [continue reading . . . ]